[obol] el Niño

[Mike Patterson]

This as of early February 2007 from:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
 
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION 
issued by 
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP 
8 February 2007
                         
Synopsis:  A transition from weak El Niño conditions to ENSO-
neutral conditions is expected by March-May 2007. 

SST anomalies decreased across the entire equatorial Pacific 
during January. However, positiveanomalies between +0.5ºC and 
1ºC remain in most of the equatorial Pacific between 170ºE and 
the South American coast. The latest SST departures in the Niño 
regions are around 0.5ºC. The equatorial upper-ocean 
heat content (average temperature departures in the upper 300 m 
of the ocean) peaked in late November and has been 
decreasing rapidly since that time, with the latest values being 
negative for the first time since early April 2006. These trends 
in surface and subsurface ocean temperatures indicate that the 
warm episode (El Niño) is weakening. It is still possible for 
some areas to experience El Niño-related effects during the next 
month, primarily in the region of the central tropical Pacific.
Most of the statistical and coupled models, including the NCEP 
Climate Forecast System (CFS), indicate that SST anomalies will 
continue to decrease and that ENSO-neutral conditions are likely 
to develop during March-May 2007. There is considerable 
uncertainty in the forecasts for periods after May 2007.

Those unfamiliar with how ENSO affect our region may want to also
see: http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/impacts.html

-- 
Mike Patterson               
Astoria, OR                    
celata at pacifier.com  
 
I'm not jealous or 
Why I've never Seen Black-throated Blue Warbler in Oregon
http://www.surfbirds.com/blogs/mbalame/archives/004174.html